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The EU Referendum - What Now?
Jul. 1st, 2016 11:20 pmLast night I met up with Aremay to have one of our increasingly regular politics chats. In light of the EU Referendum result, we decided to go to Ipsum Vinoteca, one of my favourite wine bars run by a group of Italians from Turin. I partly went there because I hadn't been there for a while, but the main reason was to show solidarity with our European friends in the current political climate. It was quite quiet, as it often is, but they had a few new craft beer bottles in stock while we also had a rather pleasant venison burger while we discussed what has been an incredibly eventful week. The discussion certainly helped and I awoke this morning with my anger somewhat diluted, and with a new determination to try and change things for the better. I don't think the anger is ever going to subside fully, but I can use it for constructive means and Aremay has certainly guided me in this direction. As he pointed out, as disappointing as the result was, there were still over 16 million people who voted Remain and it's important that their views are represented too. Furthermore, having over 16 million people to fight for is somewhat emboldening and I think there are a few things we can do to try and alleviate some of our concerns. Many of the ideas below are Aremay's, which we fleshed out together and to which I have added stuff in this write-up.
It is looking clear that nothing is going to change until the new Tory leader is in place on 9 September. This gives us two months of economic and political uncertainty, but it also gives us two months to mobilise and campaign. Considering the high turnout of the referendum, I think it's unlikely that we will remain in the EU, although there is an outside chance that public opinion will shift if inflation gets high and the pound weakens further. After all, it's now summer holiday season and people will not be happy that their money goes less far than it did this time last year.
Despite this, and as much as I hope that the vote will be overturned, I think it is unlikely. The Referendum is non-binding but I think it will be political suicide to go against it, particularly when politics at the moment is so volatile. The risks are too great for any party or leader daring to do it. This means I think we need to focus not on remaining in the EU but trying to secure an arrangement as close to being in the EU as possible. After all, the Referendum was about leaving the EU, it wasn't about the arrangement that will replace it. I know whatever this is likely to be, it won't be as good as actually being in the EU, but I think that horse has now bolted. Consequently, I think we need to campaign to try and get an EEA deal with full access to the single market and the benefits of free movement, a freedom that many of us need for our careers and a freedom I don't want to give up. Now I know freedom of movement was the primary motivator for the Leave vote, but the fact is that the UK is pretty much at full employment and we need migrant workers to fill skills gaps in many sectors, including the NHS. In addition to this, we need these people to pay taxes and ironically fund the pensions of the people who want to keep them out. However, as controlling migration is seen as such an important thing, I think the emergency brake option should be put back on the table as well as a rule where migrant workers can only come if they have a job to go to. I think these two limits, although not huge, would satisfy the free movement requirement as well as the argument for having more control over immigration and will cause the least amount of disruption regarding retaining access to the single market. It's a fudge, but then most crises concerning the EU are.
I know that both sides say that such a deal is not possible but it is likely that we are going to have at least two months before anything concrete happens, by which time cooler heads are likely to prevail. A deal will be beneficial for both parties and with French elections taking place next April and elections occurring in Germany the following autumn, it's in nobody's interest to prolong these discussions, particularly as the uncertainty will weigh down both the British and European economies. Of course, the key caveat for this is the willingness for a deal on the UK side and this is why I hope Theresa May will become the next leader of the Conservative Party. Now I know there are huge concerns with her lack of liberalism, particularly concerning the IP Bill, but she was instrumental in the legalisation of gay marriage and she has a pragmatic approach to politics which I think will go down well in European capitals. I also think she will get on well with Angela Merkel, a politician who is cut from very similar cloth. I also think Theresa May is a steady hand on the tiller and will be able to unite the Tories in a way that I don't think the other candidates can. She is making the right noises and the formation of a Brexit ministry seems like she will be able to provide the stability that this country needs to enable it to navigate out of troubled waters. Under normal circumstances, I wouldn't back May at all, but then these are not normal circumstances.
So having said all this, what can we pro-Europeans do? Well here is a list in order of importance:
1) Write to your MP and encourage your friends, family and colleagues to do the same, advocating your support for remaining in the EU and/or securing an EEA deal and why it is so important to you. Do this even if your MP campaigned to Leave. I will be writing to my MP over the weekend and if you would like a template letter, let me know.
2) Join or contribute to a pro-European political party. The Liberal Democrats have seen an increase of 12,000 in their membership over the last week and are now advocating rejoining the EU. Members have direct influence over policy while donating to the party will aid the campaign. The SNP in Scotland are overtly pro-European while if you are a pro-EU Conservative, I would consider backing Theresa May if you get a vote in the leadership election. As for Labour, I think we need to wait and see what happens with the party over the next few weeks.
3) As I mentioned earlier in the week, I firmly believe that one of the reasons why the regions, specifically neglected post-industrial towns and the countryside, voted to Leave was due to a feeling of detachment from the political process. It came as no surprise to me that areas which have some element of devolution (or in the case of Manchester and Liverpool a largely visible council or mayor) tended to vote Remain. I think councils are difficult to approach whereas Westminster is seen as being too detached. I also think people want more local decisions being made by local people at a local level who understand local issues. Consequently, I believe that had regions like Yorkshire had a regional parliament then the Remain vote would have been higher. Therefore I would suggest campaigning for and joining movements related to the formation of regional parliaments. The Lib Dems have a coherent devolution policy while regional groups like Yorkshire First would also be good to support.
4) Sign up and donate to campaigns such as British Influence, who are campaigning for a new EU deal which best furthers British interests. The lousy Britain Stronger In Europe campaign are also forming another group to campaign for a better EU deal but considering their limpness during the last four months, I am not convinced this would be money well-spent.
5) Go to Remain rallies up and down the country. There is one in York tomorrow for example and by turning up, it is making your presence felt.
6) Boycott (or in my case continue to boycott) any media organisation (e.g. The Sun, Express, Mail and Telegraph) and business whose company policy was in favour of Brexit. This includes JD Wetherspoon, Aspall Cider, Tate and Lyle and all Dyson products. I would also consider boycotting companies whose senior staff also backed Brexit. A comprehensive list can be found here. Similarly, due to the disheartening rise in racially motivated attacks, support any shops or restaurants run by or for EU nationals if only to highlight that most British people (including those backing Leave to be fair) are decent and not intolerant of immigrants. This is one of the reasons why I went to the Italian wine bar on Thursday and is why I'll be heading to my favourite Polish restaurant in Bradford on Sunday.
Democracy is a continuous process, it just doesn't end with one vote. Yes, we lost the Referendum but that doesn't mean it's the end of the campaign. It is going to be harder to get what we want, but there are over 16 million of us and we should have our voices heard too. There is still hope and together I believe we can craft a deal which will enable us to retain many of the good bits of the EU, even if we do end up leaving. I think this is where we need to focus now and we have already started to generate some momentum. If we can channel the anger we have felt over the last seven days into something constructive, I do think that we can make a difference and influence the forthcoming negotiations to our benefit.
It is looking clear that nothing is going to change until the new Tory leader is in place on 9 September. This gives us two months of economic and political uncertainty, but it also gives us two months to mobilise and campaign. Considering the high turnout of the referendum, I think it's unlikely that we will remain in the EU, although there is an outside chance that public opinion will shift if inflation gets high and the pound weakens further. After all, it's now summer holiday season and people will not be happy that their money goes less far than it did this time last year.
Despite this, and as much as I hope that the vote will be overturned, I think it is unlikely. The Referendum is non-binding but I think it will be political suicide to go against it, particularly when politics at the moment is so volatile. The risks are too great for any party or leader daring to do it. This means I think we need to focus not on remaining in the EU but trying to secure an arrangement as close to being in the EU as possible. After all, the Referendum was about leaving the EU, it wasn't about the arrangement that will replace it. I know whatever this is likely to be, it won't be as good as actually being in the EU, but I think that horse has now bolted. Consequently, I think we need to campaign to try and get an EEA deal with full access to the single market and the benefits of free movement, a freedom that many of us need for our careers and a freedom I don't want to give up. Now I know freedom of movement was the primary motivator for the Leave vote, but the fact is that the UK is pretty much at full employment and we need migrant workers to fill skills gaps in many sectors, including the NHS. In addition to this, we need these people to pay taxes and ironically fund the pensions of the people who want to keep them out. However, as controlling migration is seen as such an important thing, I think the emergency brake option should be put back on the table as well as a rule where migrant workers can only come if they have a job to go to. I think these two limits, although not huge, would satisfy the free movement requirement as well as the argument for having more control over immigration and will cause the least amount of disruption regarding retaining access to the single market. It's a fudge, but then most crises concerning the EU are.
I know that both sides say that such a deal is not possible but it is likely that we are going to have at least two months before anything concrete happens, by which time cooler heads are likely to prevail. A deal will be beneficial for both parties and with French elections taking place next April and elections occurring in Germany the following autumn, it's in nobody's interest to prolong these discussions, particularly as the uncertainty will weigh down both the British and European economies. Of course, the key caveat for this is the willingness for a deal on the UK side and this is why I hope Theresa May will become the next leader of the Conservative Party. Now I know there are huge concerns with her lack of liberalism, particularly concerning the IP Bill, but she was instrumental in the legalisation of gay marriage and she has a pragmatic approach to politics which I think will go down well in European capitals. I also think she will get on well with Angela Merkel, a politician who is cut from very similar cloth. I also think Theresa May is a steady hand on the tiller and will be able to unite the Tories in a way that I don't think the other candidates can. She is making the right noises and the formation of a Brexit ministry seems like she will be able to provide the stability that this country needs to enable it to navigate out of troubled waters. Under normal circumstances, I wouldn't back May at all, but then these are not normal circumstances.
So having said all this, what can we pro-Europeans do? Well here is a list in order of importance:
1) Write to your MP and encourage your friends, family and colleagues to do the same, advocating your support for remaining in the EU and/or securing an EEA deal and why it is so important to you. Do this even if your MP campaigned to Leave. I will be writing to my MP over the weekend and if you would like a template letter, let me know.
2) Join or contribute to a pro-European political party. The Liberal Democrats have seen an increase of 12,000 in their membership over the last week and are now advocating rejoining the EU. Members have direct influence over policy while donating to the party will aid the campaign. The SNP in Scotland are overtly pro-European while if you are a pro-EU Conservative, I would consider backing Theresa May if you get a vote in the leadership election. As for Labour, I think we need to wait and see what happens with the party over the next few weeks.
3) As I mentioned earlier in the week, I firmly believe that one of the reasons why the regions, specifically neglected post-industrial towns and the countryside, voted to Leave was due to a feeling of detachment from the political process. It came as no surprise to me that areas which have some element of devolution (or in the case of Manchester and Liverpool a largely visible council or mayor) tended to vote Remain. I think councils are difficult to approach whereas Westminster is seen as being too detached. I also think people want more local decisions being made by local people at a local level who understand local issues. Consequently, I believe that had regions like Yorkshire had a regional parliament then the Remain vote would have been higher. Therefore I would suggest campaigning for and joining movements related to the formation of regional parliaments. The Lib Dems have a coherent devolution policy while regional groups like Yorkshire First would also be good to support.
4) Sign up and donate to campaigns such as British Influence, who are campaigning for a new EU deal which best furthers British interests. The lousy Britain Stronger In Europe campaign are also forming another group to campaign for a better EU deal but considering their limpness during the last four months, I am not convinced this would be money well-spent.
5) Go to Remain rallies up and down the country. There is one in York tomorrow for example and by turning up, it is making your presence felt.
6) Boycott (or in my case continue to boycott) any media organisation (e.g. The Sun, Express, Mail and Telegraph) and business whose company policy was in favour of Brexit. This includes JD Wetherspoon, Aspall Cider, Tate and Lyle and all Dyson products. I would also consider boycotting companies whose senior staff also backed Brexit. A comprehensive list can be found here. Similarly, due to the disheartening rise in racially motivated attacks, support any shops or restaurants run by or for EU nationals if only to highlight that most British people (including those backing Leave to be fair) are decent and not intolerant of immigrants. This is one of the reasons why I went to the Italian wine bar on Thursday and is why I'll be heading to my favourite Polish restaurant in Bradford on Sunday.
Democracy is a continuous process, it just doesn't end with one vote. Yes, we lost the Referendum but that doesn't mean it's the end of the campaign. It is going to be harder to get what we want, but there are over 16 million of us and we should have our voices heard too. There is still hope and together I believe we can craft a deal which will enable us to retain many of the good bits of the EU, even if we do end up leaving. I think this is where we need to focus now and we have already started to generate some momentum. If we can channel the anger we have felt over the last seven days into something constructive, I do think that we can make a difference and influence the forthcoming negotiations to our benefit.
