Bundestagwahl 2025 And Other Things
Feb. 23rd, 2025 10:57 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
lupestripeIt's weird sitting through an election which directly affects you yet where you have no say. You would have thought we'd be used to it by now as we were here for the 2021 Federal Election and then both times Berlin had to re-run it because they didn't get their shit together. However, this time it was different as the result will significantly affect what we do. At the time of writing, that is still inconclusive.
The exit polls broadly reflect the opinion polls, meaning that Germany is swerving to the right. The centre-right CDU will definitely form the next government but their coalition partners are, as yet, uncertain. All will depend on whether the populist-left BSW surpass the 5% threshold. If they do, forming a coalition will be tricky. If they do not, then a 'Grand Coalition' of CDU and SPD is likely. What this will mean for us is uncertain, but the CDU have made overturning the Dual Citizenship law that was passed last year as being one of their priorities. This is the most right-wing CDU incarnation since the Second World War, but considering the SPD passed this law, it is uncertain whether it would make the coalition agreement. As we are not willing to surrender British citizenship, if it does, we will leave Germany. Leader of the CDU, Friedrich Merz, has said he hopes to get a coalition together by Easter. That may be too late for us, but I think we will end up staying here until at least the end of June rather than the end of May. To leave by the end of May, we'd need to make a decision this coming week, which looks unlikely. Furthermore, as we are seeing Linkin Park in Berlin on 18 June, staying here another month won't actually cost us all that much more in the scheme of things. It'll also mean that Wolfie can have another month in his current job, meaning another month's wages.
Spandau was fourth-highest for AfD vote in Berlin, with nearly one in five backing them. Slightly more backed the CDU, who also had an anti-migrant message. While I am sure most of this is directed towards asylum seekers and non-white Europeans, the principle remains - if you can discriminate against one group, then you can easily discriminate against more. If we are not welcome here, despite paying extortionately high taxes, then I am more than comfortable with returning to the UK. As I say, we'll see how the dust settles from this election and what the hard policies are likely to be before we make that decision. It is clear, therefore, that the decision won't be made for another few weeks. It may look like kicking the can down the road, as we have done for over a year now, but at least there are reasons behind it. Meanwhile, I was a little saddened that the Fureigners seemed to care more about the poorly-written cannabis law possibly being repealed than anything to do with migration.
It was reassuring at least that the AfD performed within polling expectations and that the likes of Trump and Musk did not influence the vote unduly, however in parts of the East, they are hitting highs of 40%. With Merz being a strong defender of Europe and an Anglophile too, there are reasons for optimism, but his parroting of far-right talking points is a major concern. Indeed, this is probably one of the reasons why the CDU didn't perform that much better than they had done in 2021, with the SPD collapsing being the main change. Hopefully, centre-right parties will soon realise that aping the far-right and ceding ground to them won't work, but we shall see. Certainly the CDU has cosplayed the AfD on migration policy and even the SPD have flirted with it. With a US that is clearly no longer allied to Europe in any meaningful sense, our continent needs to get its act together swiftly to protect our liberal democracies. Merz's early statements tonight saying he wants to be 'independent from the US' suggest he gets this.
This week was Nordic Fuzzcon, the first one I have missed since 2019, and I didn't get FOMO anywhere near as much as I thought I would do. Muting all the tags on social media probably helped, but even then, I think that I had such a good time at Scotiacon that I didn't lament too much. We could have also gone to Club Animalz this weekend at Kantine am Berghain, but as all of our friends were in Malmo, we didn't really see the point. If you ever wanted proof that this is more a pup rather than furry event then I guess this is it. Therefore, we have had a rather quiet weekend, my first since mid-January, although my anxiety did start to build as we got closer to the election results. This meant I haven't done as much writing as I would have liked. Still, temperatures are now reaching double figures and the sun is coming out, so it does feel like Spring is on its way at least (despite the start of the week being exceptionally cold). That's something I am feeling more hopeful about and I did manage to go on two rather lengthy and pleasant walks this weekend. I have really let my exercise lapse over Winter, not fancying going out in the cold, so it has been good to get a little more in now the weather has turned.
Aside from this, it's been a largely pedestrian week, although I have done an awful lot of writing. This has largely been aided by a couple of slow work days, which has allowed me to finish two anthology stories and start a third. The first two are now off with beta readers and I am hoping I can get them sent off to the publishers soon, while I am hoping to get the third one finished before I go back to the UK in a few weeks' time. With Entei-rah's funeral now set for 12 March, it is likely we will be back in Pudsey for at least a week, encompassing the March Leeds Furs meet too. We'll be arranging this at the start of next week.
UPDATE: It's the morning after the night before and the BSW didn't reach the 5% threshold, polling at 4.972%. This will make coalition building easier as there is now a straight path for the CDU/CSU and the SPD with a 13 seat majority but it may take beyond Easter as the SPD have a load of internal structural stuff to resolve. Meanwhile, the fact that 1 in 5 Germans would happily deport Wolfie and I (realistically it's actually 1 in 4 if you count the BSW votes) is very sobering and is making us rethink our position here. Wolfie is very anxious and isn't sleeping, while it is a heavy weight on my mind too. I guess we'll see how we feel in the coming days.
The exit polls broadly reflect the opinion polls, meaning that Germany is swerving to the right. The centre-right CDU will definitely form the next government but their coalition partners are, as yet, uncertain. All will depend on whether the populist-left BSW surpass the 5% threshold. If they do, forming a coalition will be tricky. If they do not, then a 'Grand Coalition' of CDU and SPD is likely. What this will mean for us is uncertain, but the CDU have made overturning the Dual Citizenship law that was passed last year as being one of their priorities. This is the most right-wing CDU incarnation since the Second World War, but considering the SPD passed this law, it is uncertain whether it would make the coalition agreement. As we are not willing to surrender British citizenship, if it does, we will leave Germany. Leader of the CDU, Friedrich Merz, has said he hopes to get a coalition together by Easter. That may be too late for us, but I think we will end up staying here until at least the end of June rather than the end of May. To leave by the end of May, we'd need to make a decision this coming week, which looks unlikely. Furthermore, as we are seeing Linkin Park in Berlin on 18 June, staying here another month won't actually cost us all that much more in the scheme of things. It'll also mean that Wolfie can have another month in his current job, meaning another month's wages.
Spandau was fourth-highest for AfD vote in Berlin, with nearly one in five backing them. Slightly more backed the CDU, who also had an anti-migrant message. While I am sure most of this is directed towards asylum seekers and non-white Europeans, the principle remains - if you can discriminate against one group, then you can easily discriminate against more. If we are not welcome here, despite paying extortionately high taxes, then I am more than comfortable with returning to the UK. As I say, we'll see how the dust settles from this election and what the hard policies are likely to be before we make that decision. It is clear, therefore, that the decision won't be made for another few weeks. It may look like kicking the can down the road, as we have done for over a year now, but at least there are reasons behind it. Meanwhile, I was a little saddened that the Fureigners seemed to care more about the poorly-written cannabis law possibly being repealed than anything to do with migration.
It was reassuring at least that the AfD performed within polling expectations and that the likes of Trump and Musk did not influence the vote unduly, however in parts of the East, they are hitting highs of 40%. With Merz being a strong defender of Europe and an Anglophile too, there are reasons for optimism, but his parroting of far-right talking points is a major concern. Indeed, this is probably one of the reasons why the CDU didn't perform that much better than they had done in 2021, with the SPD collapsing being the main change. Hopefully, centre-right parties will soon realise that aping the far-right and ceding ground to them won't work, but we shall see. Certainly the CDU has cosplayed the AfD on migration policy and even the SPD have flirted with it. With a US that is clearly no longer allied to Europe in any meaningful sense, our continent needs to get its act together swiftly to protect our liberal democracies. Merz's early statements tonight saying he wants to be 'independent from the US' suggest he gets this.
This week was Nordic Fuzzcon, the first one I have missed since 2019, and I didn't get FOMO anywhere near as much as I thought I would do. Muting all the tags on social media probably helped, but even then, I think that I had such a good time at Scotiacon that I didn't lament too much. We could have also gone to Club Animalz this weekend at Kantine am Berghain, but as all of our friends were in Malmo, we didn't really see the point. If you ever wanted proof that this is more a pup rather than furry event then I guess this is it. Therefore, we have had a rather quiet weekend, my first since mid-January, although my anxiety did start to build as we got closer to the election results. This meant I haven't done as much writing as I would have liked. Still, temperatures are now reaching double figures and the sun is coming out, so it does feel like Spring is on its way at least (despite the start of the week being exceptionally cold). That's something I am feeling more hopeful about and I did manage to go on two rather lengthy and pleasant walks this weekend. I have really let my exercise lapse over Winter, not fancying going out in the cold, so it has been good to get a little more in now the weather has turned.
Aside from this, it's been a largely pedestrian week, although I have done an awful lot of writing. This has largely been aided by a couple of slow work days, which has allowed me to finish two anthology stories and start a third. The first two are now off with beta readers and I am hoping I can get them sent off to the publishers soon, while I am hoping to get the third one finished before I go back to the UK in a few weeks' time. With Entei-rah's funeral now set for 12 March, it is likely we will be back in Pudsey for at least a week, encompassing the March Leeds Furs meet too. We'll be arranging this at the start of next week.
UPDATE: It's the morning after the night before and the BSW didn't reach the 5% threshold, polling at 4.972%. This will make coalition building easier as there is now a straight path for the CDU/CSU and the SPD with a 13 seat majority but it may take beyond Easter as the SPD have a load of internal structural stuff to resolve. Meanwhile, the fact that 1 in 5 Germans would happily deport Wolfie and I (realistically it's actually 1 in 4 if you count the BSW votes) is very sobering and is making us rethink our position here. Wolfie is very anxious and isn't sleeping, while it is a heavy weight on my mind too. I guess we'll see how we feel in the coming days.
