The Election Post
May. 12th, 2010 12:41 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
lupestripeI have been keeping my counsel recently for numerous reasons. I find that times like Elections bring out the more strong minded amongst us and some statements often don't make particularly pleasant reading due to their strong invective. Some reflect badly on the author and I am as much to blame for this as anyone. I think the newspapers have demonstrated that over the last four weeks and I am sure similar things have been said around these parts too.
Furthermore, because of the Election, I have been doing an awful lot more overtime in the last four weeks so I haven't had time to post even if I wanted to. I have followed proceedings in-depth though and I am glad to say that I am as happy with the outcome as I could have been under the circumstances.
I watched the Election Night with my good friend Aremay, who has been a font of useful knowledge as I have been blogging non-stop about the Election for the last four weeks. We also had pizza and indigestion, which was fun. Paid to talk politics. I think Aremay may have been a little jealous of me :P
I think that this Election has highlighted that people are voting based on their own individual circumstances and it is important to keep this in mind. I am not surprised by who has come out backing the Tories and who has backed Labour or the Liberal Democrats from the comments I have read. Why people have voted for the Tories in particular has baffled me (beyond the anti-Brown vote) but it's all about opinion and personal circumstance - that's the beauty of democracy. After all, I have heard it said that some can't understand why anyone could vote Labour after the last 13 years.
As for me, my mind was made up as soon as I read the manifestos. For three years now I have said that in a choice between Brown and Cameron I wanted both sides to lose. I didn't think either would restore trust in politics and that a hung parliament, which would force parties into making concessions and working with each other, would bring the transparency and integrity that our political system so desperately needs. What I didn't expect was just how much I fundamentally disagreed with the Tories - some of their policies I found just plan scary. Thankfully, this coalition will nullify this whilst keeping their more agreeable agenda. This suits my own particular proclivities but I accept that it may not suit others. But then I am pro-Europe so I have always been one to piss against the wind.
What I didn't think would happen was the talk of electoral reform and the more I studied this, the more I realised that the current system is inherently unfair. I cannot see how one party picking up 22% of the vote and only winning 9% of the seats - like the Lib Dems did in 2005 - can be seen to be democratic. Yes, it may be so at a local level and introducing a new voting system will inevitably shift the balance of power away from local candidates to more national government but isn't this precisely what the Leaders' Debates did anyway?
Furthermore, voter turnout only improved by 4%, not the groundswell we may have thought (although perhaps if those poor people had been allowed to vote after 10pm, the numbers would have been topped up - I think this will be the straw that broke the camel's back regarding electoral reform by the way) but then when only 150 constituencies out of 650 actually matter, are you surprised that turnout is so low?
Either way, the fact that we got a hung parliament was manna from heaven for me. The fact that the Tories threw it away was concerning though. The fact is that on April 6, the day the Election was called, the polls suggested that they would get a reasonable majority. Taking into account Cleggmania they lost about 3-4% of the vote. However, Cleggmania was not a factor on polling day and that voters went to LABOUR rather than the Tories. This suggests that the Tory Election campaign was either a) deeply flawed or b) not well received. Back to those in a minute. However, how a party that has three times the funding of its rivals and is opposing one of the most unpopular prime ministers of all time who has taken this country into the economic abyss still can't secure an overall majority is concerning. If they can't do that, can they run the country? Yes, there was a clear fear of a Tory government, propagated by the Labour Party and I think this accounted for their reasonable showing (considering the circumstances) in the polls, but where was the talk of the Tory strengths? Just like Labour didn't bring out Alistair Darling (a trump card in the City apparently), the Tories didn't focus too much on specifics, resorting to this loose concept of "change" which again wasn't well defined.
The Tories may believe that they fought a "positive" campaign but I am not convinced. The Hung Parliament Party, the constant talk of a vote for Clegg would re-elect Brown and the lack of any real substance in their policies suggests the contrary. When the IFS stated that their economic policy had the biggest hole in it out of the three major parties, it was concerning. The Economist "grudigingly" backing the Tories was hardly the ringing endorsement they and the country needed. If the Economy WAS the main factor in this election then why were the three parties so reticent in being honest about it? There was recourse to Labour failing to conduct a review before the Election but the electorate saw that this was people passing the buck. It didn't wash.
Furthermore, the Tories did use a lot of soundbytes. "Broken Society" didn't take off, neither did "Broken Britain". Is it broken? Where is it broken? I don't see it - certain parts of it may be but to suggest the whole country is somehow disfunctional seemed to be somewhat of an exaggeration. Crime statistics suggest that crime has gone down since 1995 so the evidence was thin on the ground too. The whole "Contract" thing was somewhat gimmicky too but at least they were trying to restore trust in politics. Still, it reminded me of Tony Blair's Pledge Cards back in 1997, which weren't particularly satisfying in the long-term.
The other thing is that the electorate WANTED a hung parliament - of this there is no doubt - for two reasons. The first is that no one party was convincing enough, particularly regarding issues of trust. The second is that the people wanted the parties to work together to get us out of the current economic mess in which we find ourselves. On this score, Gordon Brown was tainted goods but it is worth remembering that this crisis is NOT entirely his fault. It would be disingenuous to say it was. This is a global economic crisis caused, initially, by sub-prime mortgages being sold in the US. Not Brown's fault that. Yes, he should have regulated the banking industry more and he could have done a lot to ALLEVIATE the current burden but fully to blame? I don't buy it. Stronger government should have happened but in a boom, it would have been a very brave man to change things. After all, these same people are the ones talking about LESS state controls? How does that work? And furthermore, an argument could be made to say that if our economy wasn't SO dependent on the banking and insurance sectors, this situation would not have been as bad as it currently is. And whose fault is that Mrs Thatcher?
I believe that Labour have put in some good policies over the last 13 years. The problem is that they have also put in some awful ones, not less the erosion of civil liberties. Jacqui Smith losing her seat in Redditch was probably the sweetest moment of the night. I think the Tories will overturn a lot of these policies, which I will be glad to see as the erosion of civil liberties, for me, was the massive reason why I could not bring myself to back Brown.
It would be fair not to mention Bigotgate, which was a mere sideshow to me - I am glad he didn't get hanged for it as it's the sort of thing that everybody does in the heat of the moment. The sad thing for him was that he forgot he was wearing a Sky News microphone and he suffered for it.
The benefit of the current hung parliament is that it does take the edge off some of the Tories more disturbing policies. Never ones to help the poor, how the marriage tax cuts were fair is beyond me (and how they could have been afforded is another). I am glad this has been put out to pasture. Equally, the bonuses to students who paid off their loans quicker smacks to me of rewarding the rich and screwing the poor. The theory goes that a degree is a gateway to a better job. I can tell you from bitter experience that it is not and anyone who has been unemployed recently may say the same. The fact is that with 33% of people going to university these days and the UK being so London-centric, it is difficult to find decent jobs that could make this policy anywhere near fair. After all, the word "fair" was probably the most used word on the campaign trail from all three parties. Sadly, the policies were never really scrutinised enough in comparison to this concept to know which one would be most fair. It all just paled into blandness. Still, it was good to see the family values rhetoric wheeled out. Being a white single middle class male clearly has no value to anyone. At times, I felt like no one was speaking to me at all. And as for churches being allowed to set up schools in the State sector, don't get me started...
The proposed fox hunting vote in the Commons may also be kicked into touch as I don't see it passing without a Tory overall majority. I sincerely hope it will be rejected. How anyone could back this callous, unnecessary and inhumane treatment of an animal sickens me to the core. Very little gets my blood boiling but this does. Hopefully, the Lib Dem coalition will temper this.
The rise in income tax threshold I agree with but I do wish the rise in inheritance tax threshold was also on the statute books. Alas not it seems but you can't have everything. Trident I am unsure about - I agree that looking at a potential replacement may be prudent. I was also saddened by the rhetoric that so often associated with the amnesty on illegal immigrants. To me, this policy is the only one that makes sense if you look through it with a fine tooth comb. Sadly the press - which really has shown itself up to be most pernicious and bigoted during the last month - jumped on this in its own delicate way and pummulled it to death. My strong feelings on the press are already known but this Election campaign went to show just how ridiculous and downright nasty the tabloids truly are. It looks like most of them got roundly ignored though - a long with the disheartening "celebrity" endorsements. I sincerely hope that no one voted because Simon Cowell or David Tennant said it would be a good idea. Still, Cameron's lack of majority was made sweeter by the undoubted anger and opprobrium in various editors' offices. I love it when tabloid editors get pissed.
My constituency went Tory, as did my parents', which became only the second Tory constituency in the North-East. Hardly surprising considering their record in my part of the world and the fact that their purge of the civil service would kick the North-East in the balls yet again. This is a concern as there is a clear North South divide in political opinion, with Labour still dominant in the North and the Tories in the South. The last 13 years has seen considerable regeneration of towns like Middlesbrough and Leeds, I wonder whether this will continue under Mr Cameron. Still, I was glad to see Redcar go Liberal Democrat after the closing of the Corus steelworks. A pleasant surprise and one I didn't really expect.
In the end, accepting the Tories as an inevitability, I think the Con/Lib coalition will work - in the short term at least. I do expect another Election in the autumn though so this respite may only be brief. I also have serious misgivings about George Osborne - the Russian yacht affair still weighs heavy in the mind and I would have preferred Ken Clarke, not only for his Europhile views but also because he helped get the country out of the recession of the early Nineties. Apart from that, William Hague as Foreign Secretary is fine, and Cleggy-Weggy as Deputy PM and Cameroon as PM is a nice balance.
I think that all three leaders have emerged from the last five days in honourable fashion and true statesmen, particularly Cameron who I have begun to admire slightly over the last few days. I hope this is a sign of things to come. The Tories have made concessions, as have the Lib Dems, and I think if the country does pull together then we can sort this out. Throw in some voting reform to make the system more representative and perhaps things are looking brighter after all. Yep, don't think it could have gone much better really. Now's the time for the serious stuff to begin though.
Furthermore, because of the Election, I have been doing an awful lot more overtime in the last four weeks so I haven't had time to post even if I wanted to. I have followed proceedings in-depth though and I am glad to say that I am as happy with the outcome as I could have been under the circumstances.
I watched the Election Night with my good friend Aremay, who has been a font of useful knowledge as I have been blogging non-stop about the Election for the last four weeks. We also had pizza and indigestion, which was fun. Paid to talk politics. I think Aremay may have been a little jealous of me :P
I think that this Election has highlighted that people are voting based on their own individual circumstances and it is important to keep this in mind. I am not surprised by who has come out backing the Tories and who has backed Labour or the Liberal Democrats from the comments I have read. Why people have voted for the Tories in particular has baffled me (beyond the anti-Brown vote) but it's all about opinion and personal circumstance - that's the beauty of democracy. After all, I have heard it said that some can't understand why anyone could vote Labour after the last 13 years.
As for me, my mind was made up as soon as I read the manifestos. For three years now I have said that in a choice between Brown and Cameron I wanted both sides to lose. I didn't think either would restore trust in politics and that a hung parliament, which would force parties into making concessions and working with each other, would bring the transparency and integrity that our political system so desperately needs. What I didn't expect was just how much I fundamentally disagreed with the Tories - some of their policies I found just plan scary. Thankfully, this coalition will nullify this whilst keeping their more agreeable agenda. This suits my own particular proclivities but I accept that it may not suit others. But then I am pro-Europe so I have always been one to piss against the wind.
What I didn't think would happen was the talk of electoral reform and the more I studied this, the more I realised that the current system is inherently unfair. I cannot see how one party picking up 22% of the vote and only winning 9% of the seats - like the Lib Dems did in 2005 - can be seen to be democratic. Yes, it may be so at a local level and introducing a new voting system will inevitably shift the balance of power away from local candidates to more national government but isn't this precisely what the Leaders' Debates did anyway?
Furthermore, voter turnout only improved by 4%, not the groundswell we may have thought (although perhaps if those poor people had been allowed to vote after 10pm, the numbers would have been topped up - I think this will be the straw that broke the camel's back regarding electoral reform by the way) but then when only 150 constituencies out of 650 actually matter, are you surprised that turnout is so low?
Either way, the fact that we got a hung parliament was manna from heaven for me. The fact that the Tories threw it away was concerning though. The fact is that on April 6, the day the Election was called, the polls suggested that they would get a reasonable majority. Taking into account Cleggmania they lost about 3-4% of the vote. However, Cleggmania was not a factor on polling day and that voters went to LABOUR rather than the Tories. This suggests that the Tory Election campaign was either a) deeply flawed or b) not well received. Back to those in a minute. However, how a party that has three times the funding of its rivals and is opposing one of the most unpopular prime ministers of all time who has taken this country into the economic abyss still can't secure an overall majority is concerning. If they can't do that, can they run the country? Yes, there was a clear fear of a Tory government, propagated by the Labour Party and I think this accounted for their reasonable showing (considering the circumstances) in the polls, but where was the talk of the Tory strengths? Just like Labour didn't bring out Alistair Darling (a trump card in the City apparently), the Tories didn't focus too much on specifics, resorting to this loose concept of "change" which again wasn't well defined.
The Tories may believe that they fought a "positive" campaign but I am not convinced. The Hung Parliament Party, the constant talk of a vote for Clegg would re-elect Brown and the lack of any real substance in their policies suggests the contrary. When the IFS stated that their economic policy had the biggest hole in it out of the three major parties, it was concerning. The Economist "grudigingly" backing the Tories was hardly the ringing endorsement they and the country needed. If the Economy WAS the main factor in this election then why were the three parties so reticent in being honest about it? There was recourse to Labour failing to conduct a review before the Election but the electorate saw that this was people passing the buck. It didn't wash.
Furthermore, the Tories did use a lot of soundbytes. "Broken Society" didn't take off, neither did "Broken Britain". Is it broken? Where is it broken? I don't see it - certain parts of it may be but to suggest the whole country is somehow disfunctional seemed to be somewhat of an exaggeration. Crime statistics suggest that crime has gone down since 1995 so the evidence was thin on the ground too. The whole "Contract" thing was somewhat gimmicky too but at least they were trying to restore trust in politics. Still, it reminded me of Tony Blair's Pledge Cards back in 1997, which weren't particularly satisfying in the long-term.
The other thing is that the electorate WANTED a hung parliament - of this there is no doubt - for two reasons. The first is that no one party was convincing enough, particularly regarding issues of trust. The second is that the people wanted the parties to work together to get us out of the current economic mess in which we find ourselves. On this score, Gordon Brown was tainted goods but it is worth remembering that this crisis is NOT entirely his fault. It would be disingenuous to say it was. This is a global economic crisis caused, initially, by sub-prime mortgages being sold in the US. Not Brown's fault that. Yes, he should have regulated the banking industry more and he could have done a lot to ALLEVIATE the current burden but fully to blame? I don't buy it. Stronger government should have happened but in a boom, it would have been a very brave man to change things. After all, these same people are the ones talking about LESS state controls? How does that work? And furthermore, an argument could be made to say that if our economy wasn't SO dependent on the banking and insurance sectors, this situation would not have been as bad as it currently is. And whose fault is that Mrs Thatcher?
I believe that Labour have put in some good policies over the last 13 years. The problem is that they have also put in some awful ones, not less the erosion of civil liberties. Jacqui Smith losing her seat in Redditch was probably the sweetest moment of the night. I think the Tories will overturn a lot of these policies, which I will be glad to see as the erosion of civil liberties, for me, was the massive reason why I could not bring myself to back Brown.
It would be fair not to mention Bigotgate, which was a mere sideshow to me - I am glad he didn't get hanged for it as it's the sort of thing that everybody does in the heat of the moment. The sad thing for him was that he forgot he was wearing a Sky News microphone and he suffered for it.
The benefit of the current hung parliament is that it does take the edge off some of the Tories more disturbing policies. Never ones to help the poor, how the marriage tax cuts were fair is beyond me (and how they could have been afforded is another). I am glad this has been put out to pasture. Equally, the bonuses to students who paid off their loans quicker smacks to me of rewarding the rich and screwing the poor. The theory goes that a degree is a gateway to a better job. I can tell you from bitter experience that it is not and anyone who has been unemployed recently may say the same. The fact is that with 33% of people going to university these days and the UK being so London-centric, it is difficult to find decent jobs that could make this policy anywhere near fair. After all, the word "fair" was probably the most used word on the campaign trail from all three parties. Sadly, the policies were never really scrutinised enough in comparison to this concept to know which one would be most fair. It all just paled into blandness. Still, it was good to see the family values rhetoric wheeled out. Being a white single middle class male clearly has no value to anyone. At times, I felt like no one was speaking to me at all. And as for churches being allowed to set up schools in the State sector, don't get me started...
The proposed fox hunting vote in the Commons may also be kicked into touch as I don't see it passing without a Tory overall majority. I sincerely hope it will be rejected. How anyone could back this callous, unnecessary and inhumane treatment of an animal sickens me to the core. Very little gets my blood boiling but this does. Hopefully, the Lib Dem coalition will temper this.
The rise in income tax threshold I agree with but I do wish the rise in inheritance tax threshold was also on the statute books. Alas not it seems but you can't have everything. Trident I am unsure about - I agree that looking at a potential replacement may be prudent. I was also saddened by the rhetoric that so often associated with the amnesty on illegal immigrants. To me, this policy is the only one that makes sense if you look through it with a fine tooth comb. Sadly the press - which really has shown itself up to be most pernicious and bigoted during the last month - jumped on this in its own delicate way and pummulled it to death. My strong feelings on the press are already known but this Election campaign went to show just how ridiculous and downright nasty the tabloids truly are. It looks like most of them got roundly ignored though - a long with the disheartening "celebrity" endorsements. I sincerely hope that no one voted because Simon Cowell or David Tennant said it would be a good idea. Still, Cameron's lack of majority was made sweeter by the undoubted anger and opprobrium in various editors' offices. I love it when tabloid editors get pissed.
My constituency went Tory, as did my parents', which became only the second Tory constituency in the North-East. Hardly surprising considering their record in my part of the world and the fact that their purge of the civil service would kick the North-East in the balls yet again. This is a concern as there is a clear North South divide in political opinion, with Labour still dominant in the North and the Tories in the South. The last 13 years has seen considerable regeneration of towns like Middlesbrough and Leeds, I wonder whether this will continue under Mr Cameron. Still, I was glad to see Redcar go Liberal Democrat after the closing of the Corus steelworks. A pleasant surprise and one I didn't really expect.
In the end, accepting the Tories as an inevitability, I think the Con/Lib coalition will work - in the short term at least. I do expect another Election in the autumn though so this respite may only be brief. I also have serious misgivings about George Osborne - the Russian yacht affair still weighs heavy in the mind and I would have preferred Ken Clarke, not only for his Europhile views but also because he helped get the country out of the recession of the early Nineties. Apart from that, William Hague as Foreign Secretary is fine, and Cleggy-Weggy as Deputy PM and Cameroon as PM is a nice balance.
I think that all three leaders have emerged from the last five days in honourable fashion and true statesmen, particularly Cameron who I have begun to admire slightly over the last few days. I hope this is a sign of things to come. The Tories have made concessions, as have the Lib Dems, and I think if the country does pull together then we can sort this out. Throw in some voting reform to make the system more representative and perhaps things are looking brighter after all. Yep, don't think it could have gone much better really. Now's the time for the serious stuff to begin though.
